Keyword Analysis & Research: how can bias be avoided in forecasting

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Frequently Asked Questions

How to remove forecast bias?

Removing forecast bias is tricky. In the vast majority of cases, institutions cannot address forecast bias without bringing in outside help so that the foreign entity can “bear the responsibility” of implementing a new forecasting process that addresses bias.

How can we avoid bias and blind spots in forecasting?

A forecaster will undoubtedly have his or her bias and blind spots. However, some can be avoided by looking at the forecast itself, and some by looking at person doing the forecast. The aim here is to create deeper awareness of ‘forecasting’ by presenting some structural elements. Forecasting is about understanding the past, to project the future.

What is the difference between a positive and negative forecast bias?

When the bias is a positive number, this means the prediction was over-forecasting, while a negative number suggests under forecasting. If the result is zero, then no bias is present. The forecast value divided by the actual result provides a percentage of the forecast bias. The closer to 100%, the less bias is present.

Is forecast bias a major impediment standing in the way?

In summary, it is appropriate for organizations to look at forecast bias as a major impediment standing in the way of improving their supply chains because any bias in the forecast means that they are either holding too much inventory (over-forecast bias) or missing sales due to service issues (under-forecast bias). Most organizations have a mix...

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